Cuidado con el “espejismo rojo” si los republicanos de California obtienen ventaja la noche de las elecciones
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En California, el recuento de votos puede tardar semanas, lo que puede dar lugar a "espejismos rojos" y "cambios demócratas". Sucede en contiendas reñidas en casi todas las elecciones importantes. Los primeros resultados en California muestran a los republicanos ganando o, al menos, obteniendo mejores resultados de lo esperado.
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120 residential, commercial and vehicle burglary cases in September 2026, against 333,881 city residents in the ACS 2025 estimate. Civic Forecast calculation from Orlando Police Department case reports (September 2026) over Census ACS 2025 1-year population of the City of Orlando. Reports, not convictions; city limits, not the metro area.
3,899 bookings into Miami-Dade Corrections in September 2026, against 2,802,029 county residents in the ACS 2025 estimate. Civic Forecast calculation from Miami-Dade County jail booking records (September 2026) over Census ACS 2025 1-year population of Miami-Dade County. Bookings, not people or arrests: one person can be booked more than once.
647,734 business applications for an employer ID number in 2025, against 19,028,386 Floridians 18 and over. Across all 51 the rate was 21.0; only Wyoming (169.2) and Delaware (70.7) ran higher. West Virginia was lowest, at 11.5. Civic Forecast calculation from Census Business Formation Statistics (2025, not seasonally adjusted) and Census ACS 2025 adults. Applications, not businesses.
